Strategic Conflict & Escalation Monitor — 20 September 2026
IAEA Board refers Iran nuclear file to UN Security Council over year-long loss of continuity of knowledge on 9000kg-plus enriched uranium
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Weekly early-warning intelligence on armed conflict trajectories, military escalation risks, and the geopolitical conditions driving them. Published every Sunday.
Strategic Conflict & Escalation Monitor — 13 September 2026
IAEA Board urges Iran cooperation as UNSC splits over snapback sanctions legality, deepening P5 rift
Read briefing →Strategic Conflict & Escalation Monitor — 6 September 2026
Russia and Ukraine held a three day capital strike truce for a US delegation visit while Putin rejected a broader ceasefire
Read briefing →Strategic Conflict & Escalation Monitor — 31 August 2026
Netanyahu rejection of Gaza disarmament roadmap pushes ceasefire toward point of no return
Read briefing →Strategic Conflict & Escalation Monitor — 27 August 2026
The 2026 Iran war reignited after the US-Iran negotiation deadline expired August 17, drawing Houthi forces into direct combat
Read briefing →Strategic Conflict & Escalation Monitor — 18 August 2026
Iran ceasefire remains fragile as JCPOA snapback deadline nears, raising Iranian NPT withdrawal risk
Read briefing →Strategic Conflict & Escalation Monitor — 9 August 2026
Iran ceasefire remains fragile as JCPOA snapback deadline nears, raising Iranian NPT withdrawal risk
Read briefing →Strategic Conflict & Escalation Monitor — 2 August 2026
RSF masses forces around El Obeid as Kordofan drone strikes kill 114 civilians, 63 of them children
Read briefing →Strategic Conflict & Escalation Monitor — 30 July 2026
The 8 April US-Iran memorandum of understanding is fraying, with strikes resumed in the Strait of Hormuz and a new Gulf R4 bloc formed outside US security guarantees
Read briefing →Strategic Conflict & Escalation Monitor — 5 July 2026
IRGC struck two commercial vessels in Strait of Hormuz (25-27 June), triggering four-day US-Iran military exchange and exposing fragility of 17 June MoU
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