https://asym-intel.info/monitors/conflict-escalation/ Weekly early-warning intelligence on armed conflict trajectories, military escalation risks, and the geopolitical conditions driving them. Published every Sunday. en-gb Sat, 30 May 2026 19:03:46 +0000 https://asym-intel.info/monitors/conflict-escalation/2026-05-30-weekly-brief/ Sat, 30 May 2026 18:00:00 +0000 https://asym-intel.info/monitors/conflict-escalation/2026-05-30-weekly-brief/ Israel escalates Gaza attacks 35% in April as Hamas rejects disarmament; ceasefire collapse risk elevated https://asym-intel.info/monitors/conflict-escalation/2026-05-28-weekly-brief/ Thu, 28 May 2026 18:00:00 +0000 https://asym-intel.info/monitors/conflict-escalation/2026-05-28-weekly-brief/ Israel escalates Gaza attacks 35% in April as Hamas rejects disarmament; ceasefire collapse risk elevated https://asym-intel.info/monitors/conflict-escalation/2026-05-24-weekly-brief/ Sun, 24 May 2026 18:00:00 +0000 https://asym-intel.info/monitors/conflict-escalation/2026-05-24-weekly-brief/ Israel intensifies Gaza attacks 35% in April as Hamas rejects disarmament; ceasefire collapse risk elevated https://asym-intel.info/monitors/conflict-escalation/2026-05-23-weekly-brief/ Sat, 23 May 2026 18:00:00 +0000 https://asym-intel.info/monitors/conflict-escalation/2026-05-23-weekly-brief/ Israel intensifies Gaza attacks 35% in April as Hamas rejects disarmament; ceasefire collapse risk elevated https://asym-intel.info/monitors/conflict-escalation/2026-05-19-weekly-brief/ Tue, 19 May 2026 18:00:00 +0000 https://asym-intel.info/monitors/conflict-escalation/2026-05-19-weekly-brief/ Israel intensifies Gaza attacks 35% in April as Hamas rejects disarmament; ceasefire collapse risk elevated https://asym-intel.info/monitors/conflict-escalation/2026-05-17-weekly-brief/ Sun, 17 May 2026 18:00:00 +0000 https://asym-intel.info/monitors/conflict-escalation/2026-05-17-weekly-brief/ Israel intensifies Gaza attacks 35% in April as Hamas rejects disarmament; ceasefire collapse risk elevated https://asym-intel.info/monitors/conflict-escalation/2026-05-16-weekly-brief/ Sat, 16 May 2026 18:00:00 +0000 https://asym-intel.info/monitors/conflict-escalation/2026-05-16-weekly-brief/ Russia conducted its deadliest civilian strike wave of 2026 in the days preceding the Trump-brokered 9-11 May Victory Day ceasefire, killing at least 73 civilians and injuring over 400 across eastern https://asym-intel.info/monitors/conflict-escalation/2026-05-12-weekly-brief/ Tue, 12 May 2026 18:00:00 +0000 https://asym-intel.info/monitors/conflict-escalation/2026-05-12-weekly-brief/ Israel expands territorial control to 58% of Gaza as Hamas rejects disarmament; April deadliest month of 2026 https://asym-intel.info/monitors/conflict-escalation/2026-05-09-weekly-brief/ Sat, 09 May 2026 18:00:00 +0000 https://asym-intel.info/monitors/conflict-escalation/2026-05-09-weekly-brief/ Israel expands territorial control to 58% of Gaza as Hamas rejects disarmament; April deadliest month of 2026 https://asym-intel.info/monitors/conflict-escalation/2026-05-05-weekly-brief/ Tue, 05 May 2026 18:00:00 +0000 https://asym-intel.info/monitors/conflict-escalation/2026-05-05-weekly-brief/ Sudan civil war enters multi-front expansion phase as RSF and SPLM-N advance on Blue Nile capital Damazin while SAF targets RSF gold mines and resumes manned airstrikes in Kordofan https://asym-intel.info/monitors/conflict-escalation/2026-04-30-weekly-brief/ Thu, 30 Apr 2026 18:00:00 +0000 https://asym-intel.info/monitors/conflict-escalation/2026-04-30-weekly-brief/ JNIM-Tuareg forces strike Mali capital Bamako killing Defense Minister in major Sahel escalation https://asym-intel.info/monitors/conflict-escalation/2026-04-19-weekly-brief/ Sun, 19 Apr 2026 18:00:00 +0000 https://asym-intel.info/monitors/conflict-escalation/2026-04-19-weekly-brief/ Direct military exchanges between Iran-US-Israel on Apr 19 with Houthi Red Sea threats risk regional widening https://asym-intel.info/monitors/conflict-escalation/2026-04-18-weekly-brief/ Sat, 18 Apr 2026 18:00:00 +0000 https://asym-intel.info/monitors/conflict-escalation/2026-04-18-weekly-brief/ Hormuz closure constitutes largest oil disruption risk amid sustained I2/I4 Red levels despite F3/F4 flags https://asym-intel.info/monitors/conflict-escalation/2026-04-13-weekly-brief/ Mon, 13 Apr 2026 18:00:00 +0000 https://asym-intel.info/monitors/conflict-escalation/2026-04-13-weekly-brief/ No dominant conflict signal identified; all theatres stable with no new Tier 1 verified developments. https://asym-intel.info/monitors/conflict-escalation/2026-04-12-weekly-brief/ Sun, 12 Apr 2026 18:00:00 +0000 https://asym-intel.info/monitors/conflict-escalation/2026-04-12-weekly-brief/ No verified escalation signals exceed baseline in provided documents this week. https://asym-intel.info/monitors/conflict-escalation/2026-03-30-weekly-brief/ Mon, 30 Mar 2026 18:00:00 +0000 https://asym-intel.info/monitors/conflict-escalation/2026-03-30-weekly-brief/ Sudan drives the week's highest escalation signal — RSF capture of Kurmuk displaced 73,000 people in a single event, with indicators for rhetoric, economic warfare, diplomacy, and displacement all above initial baseline simultaneously.