Weekly financial crisis early-warning system tracking debt, credit, market structure, real economy, and systemic risk. Published every Monday.
The Middle East energy shock has moved from a transitory repricing event into an embedded driver of G3 monetary policy, evidenced by three of five major central banks tightening within an eight-day wi
Read briefing →Three of the five largest developed-market central banks are tightening or carry majority market-implied odds of tightening in direct response to a war-driven energy supply shock rather than demand-si
Read briefing →The tariff escalation cascade has advanced to rung T4 with confirmed multi-partner active retaliation, a durable structural shift rather than episodic trade friction
Read briefing →The Federal Reserve's internal hawkish dissent bloc has grown to its largest size in a decade even as market pricing has moved toward pricing out a September hike, creating a MATT-style divergence tha
Read briefing →The stagflation regime is confirmed with high conviction as three of five major central banks explicitly cite supply-shock inflation alongside cut global growth forecasts.
Read briefing →The stagflation regime is confirmed with high conviction as three of five major central banks explicitly cite supply-shock inflation alongside cut global growth forecasts.
Read briefing →The tariff cascade remains structurally elevated despite repeated court losses, as the administration continues to pursue new legal authorities rather than retreating from the underlying policy object
Read briefing →The simultaneous deployment of Section 301 forced-labor tariffs and Section 338 against Canada represents a structural escalation in the legal architecture of US tariff policy, raising both retaliatio
Read briefing →The escalation of tariffs to rung T4 via the Canada Section 338 action and the Brazil Section 301 stack constitutes a structural, not episodic, tariff-shock cascade with a rising probability of a T5 t
Read briefing →The escalation of tariffs to rung T4 via the Canada Section 338 action and the Brazil Section 301 stack constitutes a structural, not episodic, tariff-shock cascade with a rising probability of a T5 t
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