Weekly financial crisis early-warning system tracking debt, credit, market structure, real economy, and systemic risk. Published every Monday.
The escalation of tariffs to rung T4 via the Canada Section 338 action and the Brazil Section 301 stack constitutes a structural, not episodic, tariff-shock cascade with a rising probability of a T5 t
Read briefing →Central bank divergence between the Federal Reserve on hold and the ECB actively hiking is widening rather than converging, a genuine policy-driven split rather than transient market sentiment.
Read briefing →Central bank divergence between the Federal Reserve on hold and the ECB actively hiking is widening rather than converging, a genuine policy-driven split rather than transient market sentiment.
Read briefing →The USMCA non-renewal is a structural signal, not a negotiating tactic, and creates a new potential cascade trigger for North American trade and investment if the agreement moves toward termination
Read briefing →The macro regime as of June 24, 2026 is stagflationary with high conviction. The compound of a near-total Strait of Hormuz closure, divergent central bank responses, and a structural commodity price s
Read briefing →The macro regime as of June 24, 2026 is stagflationary with high conviction. The compound of a near-total Strait of Hormuz closure, divergent central bank responses, and a structural commodity price s
Read briefing →The macro regime as of June 24, 2026 is stagflationary with high conviction. The compound of a near-total Strait of Hormuz closure, divergent central bank responses, and a structural commodity price s
Read briefing →The ECB June 11 decision to raise all three key rates by 25 basis points effective June 17, 2026, represents a regime-level shift from easing to tightening in response to Middle East energy shock, wit
Read briefing →The ECB June 11 rate hike is a regime-level monetary policy shift, not a tactical adjustment. The decision to hike into a 0.8 percent growth environment signals that energy-driven second-round inflati
Read briefing →The USTR's launch of 60 Section 301 forced-labor investigations on June 2, 2026, represents a regime-level legal architecture shift to replace IEEPA authority struck down by the Supreme Court in Febru
Read briefing →